Full Professor, Colorado State University
WINNER'S CURSE:

Current SAS File

%include 'cva_data.sas';

data five;
set main;
if win=1;
if xprnc=3;
if market=3 or market=7;
/* This was defined in the cva_data file, but included here for clarity
if sigsize = 1 then high = signal;
if sigsize = 1 then low = signal;
mid=high-((high-low)/2);
range=high-low;
if sigsize = 5 and market = 3 then predict = mid - 327.25;
if sigsize = 5 and market = 5 then predict = mid - 450;
if sigsize = 5 and market = 7 then predict = mid - 534.6;
if sigsize = 1 and market = 3 then predict = signal - 900;
if sigsize = 1 and market = 5 then predict = signal - 1200;
if sigsize = 1 and market = 7 then predict = signal - 1350;
diff=bid-predict;
*/
vet_diff=bid-mid;

proc sort;
by grpsize sigsize market;
proc glm;
class grpsize sigsize market;
model diff = grpsize|sigsize|market;
means grpsize|sigsize|market;
title 'OLS of diff by entitys and individuals (veteran winners) including bankrupt';

proc glm;
model bid = mid;
by grpsize sigsize market;
title 'OLS of bid by mid (veteran winners) including bankrupt';

proc means n mean stderr;
by grpsize sigsize market;
var vet_diff;
title 'OLS of bid-mid (veteran winners) including bankrupt';

data;
set five;
if sigsize=1 and market=3;
proc reg;
model bid = mid;
restrict mid=1,intercept=-900;
by grpsize;
title 'Restricted regression of bid = mid (veteran winners) including bankrupt';

data;
set five;
if sigsize=1 and market=7;
proc reg;
model bid = mid;
restrict mid=1,intercept=-1350;
by grpsize;
title 'Restricted regression of bid = mid (veteran winners) including bankrupt';

data;
set five;
if sigsize=5 and market=3;
proc reg;
model bid = mid;
restrict mid=1,intercept=-327;
by grpsize;
title 'Restricted regression of bid = mid (veteran winners) including bankrupt';

data;
set five;
if sigsize=5 and market=7;
proc reg;
model bid = mid;
restrict mid=1,intercept=-535;
by grpsize;
title 'Restricted regression of bid = mid (veteran winners) including bankrupt';

data five_a;
set five;
/* deleting all veteran bankrupt bidders from the point they went bankrupt onwards */
if (market=7 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=1 and xprnc=3 and session=1 and entity=6 and period>9) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=1 and xprnc=3 and session=2 and entity=2 and period>7) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=5 and sigsize=1 and xprnc=3 and session=2 and entity=4 and period>8) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=1 and xprnc=3 and session=1 and entity=4 and period>10) then delete;
if (market=3 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=1 and xprnc=3 and session=1 and entity=2 and period>5) then delete;
if (market=3 and grpsize=5 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=3 and session=1 and entity=2 and period>6) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=3 and session=1 and entity=1 and period>0) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=1 and xprnc=3 and session=1 and entity=0 and period>8) then delete;
if (market=3 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=3 and session=5 and entity=1 and period>6) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=5 and sigsize=1 and xprnc=3 and session=2 and entity=0 and period>17) then delete;
if (market=3 and grpsize=5 and sigsize=1 and xprnc=3 and session=3 and entity=2 and period>3) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=5 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=3 and session=2 and entity=6 and period>20) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=3 and session=3 and entity=1 and period>8) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=3 and session=1 and entity=5 and period>12) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=3 and session=1 and entity=0 and period>5) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=5 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=3 and session=2 and entity=1 and period>4) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=5 and sigsize=1 and xprnc=3 and session=1 and entity=6 and period>28) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=3 and session=3 and entity=6 and period>16) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=5 and sigsize=1 and xprnc=3 and session=1 and entity=0 and period>8) then delete;
if (market=3 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=3 and session=5 and entity=0 and period>21) then delete;


proc sort;
by grpsize sigsize market;
proc glm;
class grpsize sigsize market;
model diff = grpsize|sigsize|market;
means grpsize|sigsize|market;
title 'OLS of diff by entitys and individuals (veteran winners)';

proc glm;
model bid = mid;
by grpsize sigsize market;
title 'OLS of bid by mid (veteran winners)';

proc means n mean stderr;
by grpsize sigsize market;
var vet_diff;
title 'OLS of bid-mid (veteran winners)';

data;
set five_a;
if sigsize=1 and market=3;
proc reg;
model bid = mid;
restrict mid=1,intercept=-900;
by grpsize;
title 'Restricted regression of bid = mid (veteran winners)';

data;
set five_a;
if sigsize=1 and market=7;
proc reg;
model bid = mid;
restrict mid=1,intercept=-1350;
by grpsize;
title 'Restricted regression of bid = mid (veteran winners)';

data;
set five_a;
if sigsize=5 and market=3;
proc reg;
model bid = mid;
restrict mid=1,intercept=-327;
by grpsize;
title 'Restricted regression of bid = mid (veteran winners)';

data;
set five_a;
if sigsize=5 and market=7;
proc reg;
model bid = mid;
restrict mid=1,intercept=-535;
by grpsize;
title 'Restricted regression of bid = mid (veteran winners)';

/*
proc sort;
by sigsize grpsize market session entity;

proc means n mean min max sum;
by sigsize grpsize market;
var profit;
title 'Basic descriptive stats of profit (veteran winners)';

proc means n mean min max sum;
by sigsize grpsize market session entity;
var profit;
title 'Descriptive stats of profit (veteran winners)';

proc glm;
model bid = high low;
by sigsize grpsize market;
title 'OLS of bid by high and low signal (veteran winners)';
*/

data six;
set main;
if win=1;
if xprnc=2;
if market=3 or market=7;
int_diff=bid-mid;

proc sort;
by grpsize sigsize market;
proc glm;
class grpsize sigsize market;
model diff = grpsize|sigsize|market;
means grpsize|sigsize|market;
title 'OLS of diff by entitys and individuals (intermediate winners) including bankrupt';

proc sort;
by grpsize sigsize market;
proc glm;
model bid = mid;
by grpsize sigsize market;
title 'OLS of bid by mid and range (intermediate winners) including bankrupt';

proc means n mean stderr;
by grpsize sigsize market;
var int_diff;
title 'OLS of bid-mid (intermediate winners) including bankrupt';

data;
set six;
if sigsize=1 and market=3;
proc reg;
model bid = mid;
restrict mid=1,intercept=-900;
by grpsize;
title 'Restricted regression of bid = mid (intermediate winners) including bankrupt';

data;
set six;
if sigsize=1 and market=7;
proc reg;
model bid = mid;
restrict mid=1,intercept=-1350;
by grpsize;
title 'Restricted regression of bid = mid (intermediate winners) including bankrupt';

data;
set six;
if sigsize=5 and market=3;
proc reg;
model bid = mid;
restrict mid=1,intercept=-327;
by grpsize;
title 'Restricted regression of bid = mid (intermediate winners) including bankrupt';

data;
set six;
if sigsize=5 and market=7;
proc reg;
model bid = mid;
restrict mid=1,intercept=-535;
by grpsize;
title 'Restricted regression of bid = mid (intermediate winners) including bankrupt';

data six_a;
set six;
/* deleting all intermediate bankrupt bidders from the point they went bankrupt onwards */
if (market=7 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=2 and entity=2 and period>2) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=1 and xprnc=2 and session=2 and entity=5 and period>0) then delete;
if (market=3 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=5 and entity=2 and period>26) then delete;
if (market=5 and grpsize=5 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=1 and entity=3 and period>18) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=5 and sigsize=1 and xprnc=2 and session=2 and entity=4 and period>2) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=4 and entity=6 and period>20) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=1 and xprnc=2 and session=2 and entity=1 and period>4) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=1 and entity=3 and period>2) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=5 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=1 and entity=5 and period>5) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=4 and entity=0 and period>3) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=2 and entity=4 and period>9) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=5 and sigsize=1 and xprnc=2 and session=1 and entity=0 and period>5) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=4 and entity=2 and period>15) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=5 and sigsize=1 and xprnc=2 and session=2 and entity=0 and period>3) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=5 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=1 and entity=3 and period>24) then delete;
if (market=3 and grpsize=5 and sigsize=1 and xprnc=2 and session=2 and entity=2 and period>0) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=2 and entity=3 and period>21) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=6 and entity=6 and period>7) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=6 and entity=4 and period>2) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=1 and xprnc=2 and session=4 and entity=3 and period>7) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=5 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=2 and entity=5 and period>13) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=5 and entity=2 and period>8) then delete;
if (market=3 and grpsize=5 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=3 and entity=2 and period>20) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=5 and sigsize=1 and xprnc=2 and session=1 and entity=2 and period>0) then delete;
if (market=3 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=1 and xprnc=2 and session=2 and entity=0 and period>5) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=5 and entity=5 and period>13) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=1 and entity=5 and period>13) then delete;
if (market=3 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=5 and entity=0 and period>20) then delete;
if (market=3 and grpsize=5 and sigsize=1 and xprnc=2 and session=1 and entity=2 and period>0) then delete;
if (market=3 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=1 and xprnc=2 and session=1 and entity=1 and period>4) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=5 and sigsize=1 and xprnc=2 and session=1 and entity=6 and period>7) then delete;
if (market=3 and grpsize=5 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=1 and entity=2 and period>4) then delete;
if (market=3 and grpsize=5 and sigsize=1 and xprnc=2 and session=3 and entity=2 and period>2) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=3 and entity=2 and period>8) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=4 and entity=5 and period>6) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=3 and entity=3 and period>14) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=1 and xprnc=2 and session=1 and entity=6 and period>16) then delete;
if (market=5 and grpsize=5 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=1 and entity=4 and period>26) then delete;

proc sort;
by grpsize sigsize market;
proc glm;
class grpsize sigsize market;
model diff = grpsize|sigsize|market;
means grpsize|sigsize|market;
title 'OLS of diff by entitys and individuals (intermediate winners)';

proc glm;
model bid = mid;
by grpsize sigsize market;
title 'OLS of bid by mid and range (intermediate winners)';

proc means n mean stderr;
by grpsize sigsize market;
var int_diff;
title 'OLS of bid-mid (intermediate winners)';

data;
set six_a;
if sigsize=1 and market=3;
proc reg;
model bid = mid;
restrict mid=1,intercept=-900;
by grpsize;
title 'Restricted regression of bid = mid (intermediate winners)';

data;
set six_a;
if sigsize=1 and market=7;
proc reg;
model bid = mid;
restrict mid=1,intercept=-1350;
by grpsize;
title 'Restricted regression of bid = mid (intermediate winners)';

data;
set six_a;
if sigsize=5 and market=3;
proc reg;
model bid = mid;
restrict mid=1,intercept=-327;
by grpsize;
title 'Restricted regression of bid = mid (intermediate winners)';

data;
set six_a;
if sigsize=5 and market=7;
proc reg;
model bid = mid;
restrict mid=1,intercept=-535;
by grpsize;
title 'Restricted regression of bid = mid (intermediate winners)';

/*
proc glm;
model bid = high low;
by sigsize grpsize market;
title 'OLS of bid by high and low signal (intermediate winners)';
*/

proc glm data=main;
class grpsize sigsize market xprnc;
model diff = grpsize|sigsize|market|xprnc;
means grpsize|sigsize|market|xprnc;
title 'OLS of diff by everything (all players)';

proc freq data=main;
tables grpsize sigsize market xprnc grpsize*win market*grpsize grpsize*sigsize;
title 'Frequencies';


run;
quit;
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