Full Professor, Colorado State University
WINNER'S CURSE:

Main SAS File

options nocenter;

data us;
infile 'd:\projects\cva\sas\total.dat' dlm=',';
input market grpsize sigsize xprnc session period entity cv bid haven win profit;
/* changing mistakes in bid entry (from experiment notes) */
if (market=7 and grpsize=5 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=2 and entity=0 and cv=13052) then bid=12500;
if (market=7 and grpsize=5 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=2 and entity=0 and cv=13052) then win=0;
if (market=7 and grpsize=5 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=2 and entity=4 and cv=13052) then win=1;
if (market=7 and grpsize=5 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=2 and entity=4 and cv=13052) then profit=152;

if (market=7 and grpsize=5 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=3 and session=2 and entity=3 and cv=9803) then bid=9341;
if (market=7 and grpsize=5 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=3 and session=2 and entity=3 and cv=9803) then win=0;
if (market=7 and grpsize=5 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=3 and session=2 and entity=1 and cv=9803) then win=1;
if (market=7 and grpsize=5 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=3 and session=2 and entity=1 and cv=9803) then profit=53;
if (market=7 and grpsize=5 and sigsize=1 and xprnc=3 and session=1 and entity=0 and cv=18361) then bid=18301;
if (market=7 and grpsize=5 and sigsize=1 and xprnc=3 and session=1 and entity=0 and cv=18361) then win=0;
if (market=7 and grpsize=5 and sigsize=1 and xprnc=3 and session=1 and entity=4 and cv=18361) then win=1;
if (market=7 and grpsize=5 and sigsize=1 and xprnc=3 and session=1 and entity=4 and cv=18361) then profit=580;

/* deleting obvious mistakes in bid entry (from experiment notes) */
if (market=3 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=5 and entity=0 and cv=11545) then delete;
if (market=3 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=5 and entity=2 and cv=12975) then delete;
if (market=3 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=5 and entity=2 and cv=21027) then delete;
if (market=5 and grpsize=5 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=1 and entity=3 and cv=21027) then delete;
if (market=5 and grpsize=5 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=1 and entity=3 and cv=13641) then delete;
if (market=5 and grpsize=5 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=1 and entity=3 and cv=21027) then delete;
if (market=5 and grpsize=5 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=1 and entity=3 and cv=13641) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=1 and xprnc=2 and session=2 and entity=5 and cv=4577) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=1 and xprnc=2 and session=2 and entity=5 and cv=6074) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=2 and entity=2 and cv=7881) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=2 and entity=2 and cv=11183) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=2 and entity=2 and cv=16188) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=2 and entity=2 and cv=13065) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=2 and entity=2 and cv=15257) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=2 and entity=2 and cv=17801) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=4 and entity=0 and cv=19552) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=1 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=4 and entity=6 and cv=8575) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=5 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=1 and entity=3 and cv=13319) then delete;
if (market=7 and grpsize=5 and sigsize=5 and xprnc=2 and session=1 and entity=5 and cv=7027) then delete;

/*
if (market= and grpsize= and sigsize= and xprnc=2 and session= and entity= and period> ) then delete;
*/

matcher=entity*100000+cv;
proc sort;
by matcher;

data signals;
infile 'd:\projects\cva\sas\signals.dat' dlm=',';
input entity cv high low signal;
matcher=entity*100000+cv;
proc sort;
by matcher;

data main;
merge us signals;
by matcher;
/*
if signal > 22500 then signal = 22500;
if signal < 2500 then signal = 2500;
*/
if sigsize = 1 then high = signal;
if sigsize = 1 then low = signal;
theta=1800;
mid=high-((high-low)/2);
range=high-low;
if sigsize = 5 and market = 3 then discount = ((theta - (range/2))/2);
if sigsize = 5 and market = 5 then discount = (((theta - (range/2))/3)*2);
if sigsize = 5 and market = 7 then discount = (((theta - (range/2))/4)*3);
if sigsize = 1 and market = 3 then discount = 900;
if sigsize = 1 and market = 5 then discount = 1200;
if sigsize = 1 and market = 7 then discount = 1350;

if sigsize = 5 and market = 3 then bid_y = bid - (range/4);
if sigsize = 5 and market = 5 then bid_y = bid - (range/3);
if sigsize = 5 and market = 7 then bid_y = bid - (3*range/8);
if sigsize = 1 and market = 3 then bid_y = bid;
if sigsize = 1 and market = 5 then bid_y = bid;
if sigsize = 1 and market = 7 then bid_y = bid;

predict = mid - discount;

diff=bid-predict;
vet_diff=bid-mid;
country=0;
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